NOW TRENDING OIL !

 Oil is now trending as surprising as this now sounds.   Oil has clawed its way back and it now is less volatile and likely to stay above $...

About Me

Retired but always looking for new challenges.

Thursday, December 1, 2016

The year that was !

This has been a year  in which there have been more financial  and political shocks worldwide than normal.Growing  populations have become more restive and even rebellious as the recession lingered on. At year end America is well on the way to recovery and the first sprigs of recovery are seen in Europe and Asia. As always Africa is lagging. 
How ever a pleasing change has been seen on the African Continent as populations strive for more accountability and less graft  top of government officials. This is playing itself out especially here in  South Africa as we strive to avoid  downgrades in our borrowing to junk status. As many other major countries have failed this test of morality we have for a second time avoided this fate.
It must be remembered that we produce 80% of the world platinum group metals and also a full range of base metals and minerals.
How ever at the present price of platinum, around $900 per ounce it is being produced at a loss. There is already a shortage of 20% in  ounces, per annum, built up and as fuel cells and other catalytic converters are needed for cleaner air become the vogue. In the last ten years the price has suddenly spurted by a couple of hundred USA dollars per ounce! this exciting event can happen again. Do remember it takes five years to ramp up and open mothballed areas in existing mines and a great deal longer in new developments!
I wish all our readers,Google and our advertisers all the best for 2017.




Tuesday, November 1, 2016

THE NEXT PHASE IN METALS AND MINERALS USE Part 2 MINING MODERISATION

  All systems are go to arrest the present decline in mining activity, and overcome the obstacles out there. The easy mining ore bodies are fast becoming the thing of the past.
 Public and private companies, with workers are beginning to work together to preserve jobs, income and tax revenue.
  Modernising and research into methods of refining especially in South Africa which has always been a world leader in this regard as during the last hundred years we were the world leaders in production of platinum group metals ,gold and diamonds. An added source of income is the production of equipment to further these activities now been developed.
  These activities will lead to sustainability of the mining environment over the next half century.
  Of great importance now is safety of workers at extreme depths in tunnels and difficult mining circumstances.
  Remote control of machines will keep workers out of harms way for the most part in dangerous areas. Narrower machines are already working and more innovative ones are being built.
Backfill of pulverised rock now has many advantages as it stabilises the ground in worked out areas avoids unsightly heaps of  ground and in generally more environmentally friendly.
The greatest advances are continually been made in refining of complicated metals such as precious metals as well as more basic metals in seperation by using enzymes instead of the old methods such as sieves to seperate the various elements from the waste rocks. This also results in greater recoveries and more profits.
IT MIGHT BE A GOOD IDEA TO ALSO READ PART 1  PUBLISHED IN SEPTEMBER ALSO THE STRIPPING OF RESOURCE ASSETS mentioned in the posts in the side-bar to get a continuity picture of the whole subject in South Africa.

For the latest on Stocks go to... Abacus Top stock tips.... and bookmark the post.

Saturday, October 1, 2016

Brexit has many stocks on hold.

The effects of Brexit has our local as well as the rest of the Commonwealth nervously waiting for the event. This is likely to cause choppy , volatile trade not only in the aforementioned but Europe and
Britian, United States and the rest of the world stocks. The reason is that stock traders and investors do not like uncertainties.
When all the noise is past, we should not be materially worse off, as only about 15% of our products now enjoy protection and better prices from the Euro zone. We should be able to negotiate far better terms for a wider variety of export products as we have wised up to restrictions placed on us of late.
Strong measures can not be placed on us as we are members of GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade). As well as that our much needed minerals such as the Platinum group metals where have 80% of the still to be mined resources , which gives us extra clout!

Google ABACUS TOP STOCK TIPS, then click on STOCK TRADING TIPS IN THE SIDE-BAR to visit any of our other blogs that are of interest!

Thursday, September 1, 2016

THE NEXT PHASE IN METALS AND MINERALS USE Part 1

   First of all lets take stock of the present position ! The world is in such a deep recession that although newly mined material in many circumstances does not nearly cover  the present use of these minerals and metals and in other instances just about does.
   Where then is the supply coming from ,one may ask? Obviously from stock piles built up in the past years.
  Prices are very low and in some instances continue to fall. Production is falling even faster and in some cases there are delays in being able to have a continuity of supplyIn the past alarm bells would have been ringing and money that is needed to ramp up production would be forthcoming for the obvious boom to follow!
   Not this time as governments have messed up their economies with quantitative easing etc. spending and printing money they have no backing for and it seems keeping the recession/depression going ad-infinitum!
   The good news is that we need these mined products to keep and expand our lifestyle as populations in developing economies keep growing and in first world countries grow older.
    Eventually demand will return and then there will be explosive activity  to try to supply these products in the shortest time.
    To make ends meet mines are sticking to old methods at the moment and  to ramp up sustainable production would take at least five years. Billions of US$ would required to start new workings would take at least a ramp up period of ten years to reach full production in most ventures, but first investors must be sure that there must be a sustainable need for that particular metal or mineral!

Monday, August 29, 2016

COMPUTER CRASH !

NEW COMPUTER
Lost  in a robbery of all things electronic and personal items at the end of July 2016, luckily mostly recovered now!
 Temporally lost passwords ,will continue next month with blogs.





T



















t

Saturday, July 2, 2016

RAND STRENGTH

During the whole Brexit fiasco the Rand held up surprisingly well, losing very little against the US Dollar.
 As Soon as the initial panic ended it made it all back in three days! Compare this with other countries through out the world where a rout took place as if a comet was threatening the world.
The reason was that longer term mutual funds, large conglomerates and longer term traders  are looking to receive a better returns on their investments.  Most first world investments such as bonds are now in negative territory ,so large investments are losing money. 
 First our bonds were in demand again and large cash flows are coming in. Our bonds are still around 7% positive.
Now our mining shares are starting to take off as modest demand  to return and risk on investments are coming into vogue again.
                                         ALSO


1.The British Commonwealth will in the long run be better off ,as will British relations with those countries as the European grouping have been urging Britain to cut favourable trade deals to its former empire! South Africa is also a member of the commonwealth.
2. The reason for the no vote winning was the European Union showing little resolution to curb illegal immigration, which any thinking person could see would lead to  WORK BECOMING VERY SCARCE AND COUNTRIES STRUGGLING WITH MONIES TO PROVIDE SOCIAL SERVICES FOR THEIR OWN POPULATIONS ,LET ALONE ILLEGAL FOREIGNERS !

Saturday, June 4, 2016

BREATHING SPACE !

   THE  DECISION WE WERE ALL WAITING FOR, THAT IS TO SEE IF WE WERE TO FALL INTO JUNK  (NON INVESTMENT GRADE)WAS AVERTED YESTERDAY .WE ALL GAVE A GREAT SIGH OF RELEF WHEN STANDARD AND POOR KEPT US ONE NOTCH ABOVE THIS STATUS. LATE LAST MONTH MOODY'S EVEN  MOVED US UP TWO NOTCHES.   THIS GOES TO SHOW WHAT CAN BE ACHIEVED WHEN BUSINESS , THE TRADE UNIONS AND GOVERNMENT ALL WORK TOGETHER FOR THE GOOD OF THE COUNTRY INSTEAD OF SHOUTING AT EACH OTHER. A FURTHER REVEIW WILL BE HELD AT YEAR END SO THERE IS MUCH WORK TO DO. WE ARE STILL THE STRONGEST FISCAL STATE IN AFRICA!
   THE CRISES WAS BASICALLY CREATED WHEN THE BOTTOM FELL OUT OF THE RESOURCE PRICES WITH DOWNTURNS IN DEVELOPED AS WELL AS DEVELOPING NATIONS AND HAS PERSISTED FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS. OUR GOVERNMENT WAS VERY LAX AND CONTINUED TO TRY TO SPEND OUR WAY OUT OF THE RECESSION ON BORROWED MONEY.
   WE CAN NOT REST ON OUR LAURELS NOW.
A GOOD MOVE WAS TO BRING MR GORDHAN BACK AS  THE MINISTER OF FINANCE. THE GOVERNMENT MUST CUT DOWN ON GRAFT WHICH REACHES FROM THE VERY HIGHEST ECHELONS OF STATE STRUCTURES TO THE LOWEST. THIS IS A SERIOUS MATTER. A GOOD START WAS MADE WHEN THE PUBLIC PROTECTOR MADE OUR STATE PRESIDENT PAY FOR PART OF THE UPGRADES TO HIS PRIVATE RESIDENCE.
    A MORE OMINOUS  SUBJECT WHICH WAS PUT ON THE BACK BURNER WAS THE SOCIALIST MINING CHARTER. IN ITS PRESENT FORM WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE STATE TO IMPOSE IMPOSSIBLE DEMANDS AND AND EVEN SEIZURE IF NOT MET SHOULD BE TOTALLY SCRAPPED,AS MINING COMPANIES CANNOT PAY WORKERS MORE OR CEDE MORE TO THE STATE TAKING THE STATES SHARE TO 50% AS PRICES DECLINE. NO NEW MINES ARE BEEN DEVELOPED AS THIS REQUIRES BILLIONS OF AMERICAN DOLLARS AND WHO WOULD INVEST IN SUCH AN UNCERTAIN COUNTRY,IF THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THOSE ASSESTS BEEN CONFISCATED ?
AFTER ALL IT TAKE MANY YEARS TO BRING MINES TO PROFITABILITY.
  ANOTHER DUMB MOVE,  IN ANOTHER BILL STILL IN THE MAKING IS TO FORCE MINING COMPANIES AT THIS CRITICAL TIME TO KEEP A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF THEIR PRODUCTS BACK FOR FURTHER BENEFICATION HERE BEFOR EXPORTING THEM. THIS QUOTA WILL BE DECIDED BY TECHNOCRATS OF THE RULING PARTY. THIS IS SUPPOSED TO BE TO CREATE JOBS, BUT SUCH BENEFICATION IS USUALLY HIGHLY SOPHISCATED,REQUIRING SKILLED WORKERS FROM OUTSIDE OUR REGION , IS UNLIKELY TO CREATE JOBS AND WORST OF ALL , WHERE WOULD WE SELL THESE PRODUCTS?
IN THE COMING MONTHS I SHALL ENDEVOUR TO REPORT ON POSITIVE ASPECTS OF OUR EVENTUAL  RECOVERY WHICH IS A MUST.
 1 THE NEWEST ADDITIONS TO PAGES ARE MENTIONED AT THE TOP OF THE INDEX ABOVE.
 2 SEE THE ADDITIONAL NEW SMALL CAP WINTER  AND YEAR  LISTS ABOVE
3 Whilst we wait for Brexit to play itself out on the 24 June 2016 maybe visit our revamped site at http://paws2012.blogspot.com for a gentler look at life !

Wednesday, May 4, 2016

SELL IN MAY ?

and go away! Not really ,but do note that resources such as gold ,coal and platinum group metals have soared in the last couple of months   , coming off lows and driven by speculators.
There is really no sign that there is an increased demand at  this stage. The recovery continues, but at a snails pace.
Best to wait till August before entering any large buying moves.

Friday, April 1, 2016

OUR BACKS TO THE WALL!

   Our finance minister with years of experience is doing a great job bringing order to our fiscal system.
TRANSFER TO MINING NEWS IN THE INDEX ABOVE FOR THE LATEST ON GOLD AND PLATINUM
   How ever as hard as he tries and he has succeeded in bringing  almost every one on board even the major trade unions as they see the number of jobs declining due to circumstances world wide.
   The major reason is of course that we remain a basic producer of metals and minerals. The demand for these has declined drastically and of course the needs of the poorer citizens have to be met to keep their body and souls alive!
   Therefore I RELUCTANTLY forecast that we will be downgraded to junk status(i.e. non investment grade) ,likely this winter. We are held in such good stead that countries such as Brazil and Russia were downgraded a considerable time before us.
 The good news is we are unlikely to be downgraded further and not if but when demand for commodities improve we are likely to be upgraded before many other countries of the world.
I hope we have learnt our lesson and in future keep strict fiscal discipline!

Tuesday, March 1, 2016

ADDITIONAL ASSET CLASSES

Most of us have   read at certain times that money is not worth the value of the paper its printed on!
Unfortunately this is turning out to be the norm , more often than we would like!
It was obvious that there was not enough gold in the world to cover all the paper currencies as in the past. Coming up with PAPER GOLD as it was called was not the answer, but the chosen method politicians decided on. It was thought that the working endeavours of ordinary citizens would always be equal to the value of  a currency. As time has gone on cracks have started to emerge, but the method of dealing with this situation is to ignore it and never mention the bind we find our selves in.
So this has now led to a even more dangerous phenomenon called the BITCOIN ,which we are told is mined out of thin air, according to a complicated mathematical formula, which no one fully understands with no backing of any kind.
TANGABLE ASSET CLASSES are now forming additional methods of preserving wealth so as all our hard earned value is not lost.
GOLD,PLATINUM GROUP METALS,SILVER ,DIAMONDS ARE TRUE WEALTH PRESERVERS, AS THEY CAN BE USED AND STORED AS BARS,COINS OR AS JEWELLERY OR A COMBINATION OF THESE (EXCUDING DIAMONDS OF COURSE).
ANOTHER ADVANTAGE IS THAT THEY CAN BE EASILY CARRIED OR SOLD.
REAL ESTATE UNLESS IN VEHICLES SUCH AS REITS,, CAN BE A BIND IN TIMES OF DISTRESS AS THE FORMER ARE EASILY DEPOSED OF.
STOCK EXCHANGE SHARES ARE ALSO EASILY DEPOSED OF OR BOUGHT IN THE RIGHT SECTORS,MUCH BETTER THAN FIXED DEPOSITS ETC.
Stamps and paintings might not be easily deposed of in times of stress and similar objects such as antiques.
THE LATEST PAGE UPDATES ARE AT  THE TOP ARE ALWAYS AT THE TOP OF THE INDEX ABOVE

Monday, February 1, 2016

South African Financial Strength

Visit the index above as the latest page updates are placed first in the index .
Our economic ship has steadied since the appointment of our  finance minister Pravin Gordhan has been re-appointed .This man has a good record of managing our financial affairs in the past and was a good choice after the two light weights just before his appointment .As a result the Rand has shown signs of strengthening  , at least for the time being!
 We are the most stable financial country on the African Continent.
  Our government has stuck to the capitalist system for the most part, despite agitation from the far left. Unlike many other states in the world it is easier to remove money quickly from our country as there fewer constraints .
 The South African Republic does not go in for "ambush economics" such as Nigeria now seems to be doing. Now that their oil industry is failing  and they cannot balance their budget, they have taken to fining all the large companies such as our own MTN ridiculous amounts of money for frivolous reasons. Western   world companies are also  finding out they also in the line of fire! Surely in the longer term this will negate new companies investing there.
Through its long history South Africa has always paid what it's borrowed from banks in other countries.

Friday, January 1, 2016

NEW YEAR EXPECTATIONS

Our local South African market the JSE is oversold at the moment. Of course our financial state is not good as our balance of payments is not improving  with very low demand  for our commodities and with rating agencies hovering to reduce us to junk status, as we hold on just one notch above junk at the moment.
How ever there signs of some commodities such as copper , platinum group metals , even iron ore having reached a low plateau now as mines tighten their belts taking steps not to over produce and also following tight business principles ,major producers are ready to ride the bad times as they aim to carry on at break even rates.
We feel that stock prices will not fall further in Rand terms as the USD strengthens our Rand weakens and we receive more income. This is because most of our commodities are rated in USD.
The real recovery in commodity prices  is likely only to start taking place toward the middle of 2017 and be in full swing towards the end of   2018!
There is enough information on overseas markets available out there.
Visit the index. above the post regularly.    The latest updates are always placed at the top of the index above.