South African Dilemma!

URGENT UPDATE. SEE MINING NEWS IN THE SIDE BAR The ANC has been in power for 23 years with out any serious rivalry from other parties. No...

About Me

Retired but always looking for new challenges.

17 JULY 2017 My Specialist Revised List .For 2015,2016 and 2017

FOR 2015 ONWARDS UP TO NOW 2017
Realising that past performance is no guarantee of future performance I have decided to re-examine all the reasons I chose the shares on this list and see if the same conditions still exist and if new circumstances might exist that could either enhance or be detrimental to those shares. Always do your own research before trading, as always this  list is only my opinion.  I take no responsibility for errors.
New lists,2015,2016 and 2017.
SUMMARY  OF UPDATES
17/72017 UPDATES
2017 START
DCP +       26   %
TAW  +     60   %  *

Now on the lists since2016
AEL  +     91   %  
BAW +     87   %   
GLN +     216  %
EXX +      131 %

 Now on the lists since 2015
 KAP +    80    %
 REI  +    19     %

*==NEW INFORMATION  see below 1.  SEE FULL WRITE UPS AND LATEST NEWS  and NEW UPDATES  below .
 2.  Previously listed = * See list at he bottom of this post for previous results.
 3.  New listing on My Specialist Watch list = +
 4.  A great  deal of research goes into this list, how ever if a share does not perform  for any number of reasons , it will be removed from the list. 
 5.I have done all the research, but if  traders do not take to a share it won't perform , for capital gain  as  follow the two  top performing shares ,of each year.
I date them all from the same starting date to make it easy to compare them
 2017 STOCKS From 1 January 
STARTING PRICES 
 R46.15              IMP
PLATIUM HAS TAKEN A KNOCK WITH LOWER DEMAND IN THE FUTURE LIKELY. REMOVED FROM LIST JULY 2017

UPDATE 5/JUNE/2017 ISSUE-ING NEW DUAL CONVERTABLE BONDS,A VERY GOOD MOVE IN OUR OPINION AS THE PAY BACK TIME HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 2022. THIS SPOOKED THE MARKET AND THE PRICE FELL. WE FEEL A GOOD SHARE TO HOLD.
NEGATIVES Mar 2017 Labour problems plus large debt  and low prices temporally hurts recovery
POSITIVES 14 Jan 2017        Platinum Group Metals are definitely coming back into demand again. Impala is one of the major large shares that does not carry the baggage of  Amplats that is trying to reduce its holdings or Lonmin that is dogged by the Marikana incident.Good labour relations and strong management should make this share a winner over many years to come.
NEGATIVES The government has lost the confidence of the electorate and might try to win it back by strong socialist moves now
1 R20.02          DCP

POSITIVES 15/DEC 2016        One of the most exciting retail shares to go public. This discount retail ,wholesale,health food distributor has been trading as a private company since 1978 and now has a 100 outlets and intends doubling that in a couple of years. Under the Saltzman family it has been named as the most popular chemist group this year. It has just been floated and is worth capital 17 billion Rands

R1.23                       TAW
POSITIVES. Update July 2017.VOLVO has decided to produce no further internal combustion engines in cars after 2018. this is leading the way and giving support to lithium based vehicles for the indefinite future !

 Mar 2017 The only lithium producer  available to South African Investors on the JSE with ample reserves in Namibia and Australia at the Bald Hill site. Great Updates. The metal of the future.
NEGATIVES Some what risky small cap.
2016 STOCKS. (AS THE 2015 LIST CONTINUES TO RUN , SEE BELOW THE 2016 LIST  latest updates)
PRICE
 IN RANDS
STARTING PRICES
ADDITION TO 2016 LIST 1 JULY  2016 
R30.20               GLN    
POSITIVES   
 UPDATE   15/12/2016      Surprisingly have decided to restore the dividend going forward  . This nimble company has now a war chest ,having also payed off all debts and ready to take advantage of any viable opportunity. Chrome's price has risen by 50% in the last three months
With  NICKEL already in short supply and the same happening for copper,cobalt and zinc GLN are looking at expansion plans going forward.
with

 UPDATE 7/11/2016     Although almost bankrupt by the quickness of the recession and being  under huge financial burden ,the CEO Ivan Glasenberg was one of the first to see the necessity to cut production of over supplied commodities and then proceeded to get his company in order. This fleet footed company now has the funds to persue the most productive commodities going forward. China has now cut its own production of coal by half to preserve its supplies for the future.This has forced industries in that country to now import half their usage from external sources.The coal price has almost doubled. Glencore is thee biggest supplier of sea traded thermal in the world. Their mines are starting to do exceptionally well.
Their zinc mines are also doing better as the price of zinc increases. Other commodities are also increasing as the world recovers.
NEGATIVES. They sold half their coal forward to prevent a complete crash if the price fell further before the present events. How ever this warrant will expire in June 2017. Some people think the coal price might decline soon. This is not our opinion although further increases might be capped.

R5.86     AEL         

POSITIVES THIS ONCE ILLUSTRIOUS SHARE  has been  revamped by selling off parts that not done well since the recession. Now with sound management and a cash kitty and selling off non core assets,they are set to thrive in the recovery coming soon.
NEGATIVES THE RECOVERY might be delayed by fiscal constraints on our country


DECEMBER 20 /2015 

                                            UPDATES
R10.88         GND     
 8/ 11/2016  REMOVED FROM LIST The Remgro touch of turning companies round is not working. 
GND has too many facets at the moment AND HAS BECOME UNFOCUSED.
  UPDATE 20/4/2016  South Africa's largest shipping company and many faceted types of land transport. A company that has suffered in the recession for a number of years. Now making a recovery due to the dry Baltic shipping rates  starting to recover , as well as China and other  countries recovering. Remgro now holds the largest share and is ably guiding this company in the right direction.
NEGATIVES The recovery is still likely to be slow for a number of years
.


R58.43           BAW     
POSITIVES       A recovery stock ,that's implementing a long term sustainable change ,in the way its doing business and hoping to double its income in the next five years. This a leading diversified company which is establishing itself in  wide ranging strategic countries.
NEGATIVES The world is in a some what lumpy recovery phase at the moment and might only be in full recovery in 2017

 R21.80             CGR    REMOVED FROM LIST 21/9/2016
POSITIVES   A building share that I tipped when it was launched as a small cap on my small cap watch list a couple of years ago ! It has shown phenominal growth as the only building share that has grown during this time.
It cleverly has parterned  itself with the government to build sub-economic housing as well as middle class housing and is branching other directions as well. The most important thing is their order book is full for years to come, as it is into large scale providing of these services. 
NEGATIVES The price of building materials is rising and profits from letting are not increasing as fast.
R43.23        EXX      
POSITIVES SEEMS TO HAVE SETTLED ITS SPAT WITH THE GOVERNMENT FOR THE TIME BEING ANYWAY.
    9/JAN/2017 NEGATIVES NOW  Political interference by the ruling party might sink this share thru  their state parastatal Escom . They are spooked by the fact that they are loosing votes and are trying to regain momentum by attacking easy targets. For the time being I am  leaving it on the list.
POSITIVES
JAN 2016 RECOVERY STOCK
A truly large local commodity stock whose main product is coal. They are large enough to ride out any down turn and meet any specification of  users as to limiting emission qualifications. Africa will be dependent on coal for electricity  for at least the following two decades as nuclear energy is generally too expensive in the near term. The world export markets are likely to grow again in the next couple of years.
NEGATIVES
The recovery might be delayed. 
R24.01      SGL        
NEGATIVES 1/1/2017  A FEW POOR DECISIONS OF LATE SUCHAS BUYING EXPENSIVE ASSETS AT THE WRONG TIME MIGHT DELAY ITS RECOVERY , HOW EVER EXELLENT DIRECTORS CAN REVERSE THIS THESE MISTAKES AND IN THE LONGER VEIW STILL A POSITIVE RESULT STILL ON THE CARDS.
POSITIVES
It could be said that is a completely new share as it was originally spun out of GFI ,as a gold  local counter and now is picking up platinum gains are from still producing mine  bargains from major shareholders such as Anglo etc. Strong positive growth is promised, as the Rand gets weaker in Rand terms the income grows. Also all its present assets are already developed. It is also planning for the future by looking to extending the life of existing assets and further down the line new mining areas.
NEGATIVES
COMMODITY SHARES CAN BE VOLATILE!




JAN                           UPDATE
2015                          to APR /2017
12) 9.00         RPL  removed  
 July 2016 London and Germany are in turmoil caused by BREXIT ,might be a buying opportunity, but no hurry to enter!

11)20.50       ROC*  removed
Sep/2015 ROC has come out with poor results and we think it would be best to sell at this juncture to protect our capital gains to date. We believe it still has merit and might show sign of growth later.
Apr/2015  ROC on PE of 7.73 should still  have plenty of upside left

9)  22.85      PGR+      +30   %REMOVED APR 2017

7) 6.65        CVH*     REMOVED FROM LIST 21/9/2016

5) 29.05      SPG*       + 14     % REMOVED APR 2017
GAINED 110  % SINCE FIRST PUT ON LIST IN 2012        
4) 10/1.2015 ZED+      -      5    % Removed from list as immediate future looks bleak for agriculture.
Apr/ 2015 price increased by 96% in last 12 months .
3.) 24.60    REI*     
9/JAN/2017  Good things are about to happen this stock. They have a limited time to sell off at least another half of their BTI stock so as to conform with indecis mandate, this they are doing.This will give them plenty of cash to take advantage of any good opportuity worldwide in the coming couple of years. Their pension funds are turning out to be winners!
UP 84% SINCE FIRST PUT ON LIST IN 2012    on 11/8/2015
Jun /2015 a most misunderstood share ,which through top proved management is exposing us to niche pockets of private companies where expotential growth takes place. A token dividend was paid. Probably investors do not know how to price this part of the market. This is the perfect way to tap into the tobacco company  (BTI)with out the hassle of litigation ever.  See number 3 below for the reason it is on this list and 2013/ 2014 lists at bottom of  this list.

1.)   4.35    KAP+     

Comments below for 1January 2015
12)REDEFINE INTERNATIONAL(RPL)
 A top class REIT class which has made the right decision to exit Smaller European states and concentrate on the areas that will provide the best growth in future such as Germany. This also adds to my European assets and the  safety side of our stocks.


11)ROCASTLE(ROC)
It's been one of my best performers since I first listed it in2014.See bottom of this post. One of my reasons in holding this REIT is to build a  portfolio outside South Africa which gives good income and is safe from any future government intervention.



  10)CLOVER ( CLR) REMOVED AS THE WHOLE SECTION IS NOW OVERTRADED AND SELLING WHAT THE GOVERNMENT REGARDS AS A STAPLE FOOD FOR ALMOST HALF OF ITS INCOME NAMELY IS MILK. HOW  EVER COSTS ARE CREEPING HIGHER THAN  THE  SELLING PRICE.

9) Peregrine(PGR)
Still on a decent PE of 10.Asset manage company with OLD MUTUAL ,INVESTEC and CORONATION as share holders ,gives a good management structure.

8) AFE removed as now negative and does not fit specifics of this list.

7)CAPEVIN( CVH )
Their sole asset is a  59% holding in DISTILLERY (DST) ,SOUTH AFRICA'S LEADING BRAND of wines and alcoholic beverages, having bought  a leading Scottish brewery. they are firmly establishing themselves on the world market.
Their liquors Amarula cream and the new Amarula Gold are turning out to be world winners as are their ciders Hunters and Savannah.


6.PSGKST(KST)SUSPENDED 22/11/2016
   New speciality finance different to Coronation as it does  invest in shares all interlinked under one management team. They are usually private entities. The management team are now streamlining the business by selling off ill-fitting parts and combining those that will fit well together. We do expect the Mouton family to further enhance this already successful share and see expotential growth in the same mould as Capitec , Zeder, Curro and PSG. PSG is the largest share holder.


5.SUPERGROUP(SPG)
The difference with this share is since its recovery it has very effectively put its full effort into improving its infrastructure and has not pay out any dividends although it is showing a growing profit. A true recovery share on a lower PE rating of 14. As freight ,renting and auto dealerships  bring in most of the income they will benefit greatly from the 25% discount in the oil price which seems to be headed down even further.


4.ZEDER(ZED)
This is a share in the Speciality Finance sector of the JSE 
This share has shown phenominal growth of late as it has been reconfigured to by selling the smaller agricultural holdings and concentrating on the five larger profitable companies in the main which all profitable. Pioneer Foods make up a large part of the holding. Now the sum of the parts is trading  at a discount to the starting price.


3.REINET(REI)
This share has gained 66% in capital value in the last couple of years ,since I first added to my list. It has now paid its first final maiden dividend, being 1.53 Euro, which is 3% of the income earned as the rest is re-invested in other growth financial and properties. Its principle investment   is  in British American Tobacco. It is diversifying into property and  mostly  private financial companies in Europe and America to build value away from tobacco and when it requires funds sells off (BTI)BAT shares. Although BTI continues to perform well its revenue increases slowed of late due to the increased  rules governing smoking world wide. How ever with China and the rest of the far East recapitalizing their profits are expected to increase even faster as this is the fastest growing area for tobacco products. With Johann P Rupert at the helm of REIT we know this company will thrive. This is another excellent Rand Hedge for all the same reasons as Trencor below.

2.TRENCOR(TRE) NO LONGER ON THE WATCHLIST THE REASON DROPPED ON16/7/2015 IS THAT IT IS IN AN OVER TRADED AREA AND BEING ONE OF THE LARGEST CONTAINER FREIGHT MOVERS IS NOW SLOW TO REACT TO TRADING CONITIONS. SMALLER COMPANIES ARE PROVING TO BE MORE NIMBLE AND ARE ACHIEVING BETTER RESULTS!
The share that  has 48% beneficiary interest of  the US company TEXTAINER that deals in  every facet of marine containers world wide. In fact it is the largest company doing business in this field.
This is in a niche market with no rivals likely to appear right into the distant future! First I must state that in the last couple of years, capital growth was only 12 % per annum, how ever it can be pointed out that the recession hit many companies. During this year Textainer increased its container capacity by 433,000 TEU to a total of 3,175,000 TEU of which 78% is owned the rest leased to be able to provide for its customers. At present there is considerable strain on container companies as prices are very competitive, but because of its diversity Textainer is steadily increasing its income and profits. A Rand Hedge.
TRENCORE NOW ON A PE of 10, has over the last ten years increased its capital value by 40% per annum and dividends have risen well in this time.
I regard this share as annuity income and as no locals are employed so its income is not subject to strikes, government interference etc. As the world recovers it can only perform better and lets me sleep easy at night.

1.KAP(KAP)
With ample funds for any good opportunity and excellent management ,they have practically been reinvented.
Main share holders are Steinhoff 43% , Allen Gray 23% and Investec 10%.The Unitrans holding also adds to the bottom line.


ORIGINAL SPECIALIST WATCHLIST LAST UPDATE
ON 12/1/2015
CAPITAL GAIN IN GREEN  AND LOSS IN RED
FROM 2012
GND + 63  %
TRE  +29  %
FROM 1 JAN 2013
AFE   +67  %
CML  +177%
CVH   +35  % 
REI     +55 %
SPG    +97 %
TDH   +122%

FROM 2014
ROC   +68  %
SFN    +19  %
GPL   +46  %
GLN   -12   %


LIST B AND C WILL NO LONGER BE UPDATED IN 2015.
I take no responsibility for errors or omissions on rejuvenated list and lists B or C. As all research is my own and my opinion only, therefore do your own research before trading.