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URGENT UPDATE. SEE MINING NEWS IN THE SIDE BAR The ANC has been in power for 23 years with out any serious rivalry from other parties. No...

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SPRING UPDATE 2017 July SHARE AND DERIVATIVES

TOP 40 SHARES AND DERIVATIVES  CLUB(INVESTMENT PRODUCTS)
ALL FORUMITES OF STANDARD BANK SOUTH AFRICA, ARE AUTOMATICALLY MEMBERS OF THE CLUB
This replaces the former lists which were specifically for underlying shares for INSTALMENTS. 
 Standard Bank has only some selected Instalments ,as most
Instalments have been phased out by the  banks.So now its up to the users of this site to decide which type of investment to make. Go to INVESTMENT PRODUCTS where there are mentioned longer term derivatives  banks namelyINVESTEC BANK, and STANDARD BANK Do remember to ring the specific bank to ask them how  their product works if you do not know.THE REGRESSION LINE IS A GOOD GUIDE ON LONGER TERM PRODUCTS
SOUTH AFRICAN SPRING LIST 2017

  (I take no responsibility for mistakes or omissions.So please check all shares before purchasing either the share or instalment)
Shares having their Final Declaration in  August,September,October 2015 on the Top 40 (tradable list)
Declaration dates can at times be changed,for a number of reasons please check the dates before purchasing
Shares coming up to their finals,declaration dates;
PREMLININARY LIST FOR 2017 STARTING 15  APRIL to 31 July
AUGUST DECLARATIONS 2017
BID    +14   %
BIL
BVT   +12   %
FFA   + 8     % 
FFB   + 12   %
GRT
IMP   -18    %
SHP
WHL- 12    %
SEPTEMBER DECLARATIONS 2017
APN    +2    %
DSY    +4    %
FSR     +6    % 
REM   
RMH   +5   %
SOL     +4   %     
COMMENTS
MAY 2017
Only those that show  positive capital gain are shown at this stage


FINAL UPDATE 31 OCT 2016

2016 SPRING LIST
2016 OCT FINAL UPDATE

AUGUST DECLARATIONS
BIL          +15    %
BVT*      + 21   %

GRT         +6    %
SNH         -17   %
SHP          +11 %
WHL        -12  %
* BVT FROM 11 JUNE ONWARDS AFTER SPLIT IN SHARE

SEPTEMBER DECLARATIONS  FINAL OCTOBER UPDATE 2016
APN          -6        %

DSY           -7        %

FSR           +9      %
REM          -5       %

RMH        +8       %

RMI           -3      %  

SLM          +3        %

SOL           -16     %
OCTOBER FINAL UPDATE. A very poor quarter indeed! Now time to concentrate on the Autumn  Quarter

SEPTEMBER   The market has stood virtually still during the last couple of months and is very nervous. Rising interest rates and Brexit adding to the uncertainty.

 JUNE,JULY COMMENT  The general market is retracting now and good opportunities will be set up at lower levels, best time to enter might be in July.   Then follow the momentum





2015 SPRING LIST  FINAL UPDATE
FROM 2 APRIL to 1 OCT 2015
AUGUST DECLARATIONS
ASR  -   37 %
BIL   -   12  %
BVT  +  8  %
GRT  -   8 %
IMP   - 36 %
IPL   -    5 %
SHP  -   11 %
WHL + 17%
SEPTEMBER DECLARATIONS

APN  -  19  %
DSY  +  20   % 
FSR  -   0   %
REM-   4    %
RMH-   5   %
RMI -   5  %
SHF    +11  %
SOL   + 12  %

UPDATES
OCTOBER Ending a very poor period now time to concentrate on the Autumn list.
SEPTEMBER A culmination of events abroad has led to
 the dismal results thus far. This shows that our market unlike in the past is effected by such events now to a greater degree.

AUGUST The Chinese market being over bought and retreating has caused all other markets to come off, ignoring fundementals.
JULY     Shares are facing incredible headwinds having gained well over the last couple of years and now waiting for  the actual recovery to catch up with the heady prices. Added to this is instability in Europe and Asia. The United States is still showing forward momentum albeit very slowly ,so with Chinese intervention to steady their market their is no sign of markets over heating generally and market crashes in the offing any time soon. A modest recovery in line with actual market conditions is still in the offing, early next year, if nothing untoward happens, such as military tensions etc.. 
June     Shares have out performed the actual recovery till now that the strain on  their prices had to occur ultimately, which has now happened. Added to this there are unusual tensions out there and worry about  Greece leaving the monetary unit because of technical bankruptcy  and more worry that this might set a trend causing havoc in the world. Nothing like this is likely to occur. Just ignore the noise and follow those shares advancing.


MAY 2015  Almost half the shares are still in the "park mode" at the moment, i.e. with in 5% of the starting price.


FINAL UPDATE FOR 2014 

FROM 23 APRIL to 30 OCT 
AUGUST DECLARATIONS
ASR      -48   %
BIL       -15   %
BVT      +1   %
GRT     -12   %
IMP      -1     % 
IPL       -6    %
SHP      -15  %
WHL    +5   %
SEPTEMBER DECLARATIONS
APN    +32     %
ARI      -31     %
DSY     +7      %
FSR     +12    %
REM   +13    %
RMH   +10    %
SHF     - 2     %
SLM    +1     %
SOL     - 6     %
OCTOBER FINAL COMMENT 2014
EVERY YEAR THERE IS A RETREAT IN PRICES SOME WHERE BETWEEN AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER USUALLY IN THE REGION OF ABOUT 8% THEN THEY CONTINUE RISING AGAIN.THIS YEAR THE RETREAT WAS SHARPER AND IN  EARLY OCTOBER AS SHARES HAD HAD A LONG UPWARDS RUN.

SEPTEMBER COMMENT. THIS IS IN MY OPINION NOT THE START OF THE NEXT RECESSION, BUT A PULLBACK CAUSED BY A NUMBER OF WORLD EVENTS  PLUS NERVOUSNESS ABOUT THE END OF QUANTITIVE EASING IN AMERICA AND POSSIBLE FURTHER TENSIONS IN RUSSIA.SEE MY POST ON THE HOME PAGE SEPTEMBER.

AUGUST COMMENT  A common mistake is think  that a share that  is the lowest on the list above has further to go than a share that has already climbed the most .In most instances the share that has climbed the most is on a roll and momentum will let it rise further. I usually only am only interested in the four shares that have risen the most on the list. Do remember these are top 40 shares ,so are well researched by experts and one should ride on their "coat tails  !"


COMMENT JULY
Best to choose the shares that have increased the most and let
momentum do the rest.

COMMENT JUNE
Although June might produce the best advances, it must be remembered we are in a slow recovery phase which should increase more rapidly as spring comes.Do compare with previous years below. Impala might not be the share it was previously, but can be expected to advance quite off a low base. For Derivatives follow the shares doing the best for good results.
FINAL UPDATE FOR 2013
FROM 10 Apr 2013 TO 28 OCT 2013
Aug
BIL      +   18%
BVT    +    13%
GRT   -       4%
IMP    -       2%
IPL    +       4%
SHP    -       1%
TRU  +       5%
WHL  +    14%

SEP
APN  +       42%
ARI  +        15%
ASR  +       56%
DSY +          8%
FSR  +         9%
REM+        15%
RMH +      18%
SHF    +     66%
SOL   +      30%

FINAL UPDATE 2013 OCTOBER.IF ONE FOLLOWED THE BEST SHARE INCREASES ONE WOULD HAVE DONE WELL
UPDATE SEP 2013
A good showing by some shares.This system used by our club members of selecting just the three or two leading shares works very well and keeping them up to just after the last day to trade or a little longer works very well.No complicated formulas to follow.This is better than keeping a share for a number of years as even the best performing share has its off year,now and then !


UPDATE AUG 2013
Resources are showing signs of a moderate recovery.Banks and retailers are doing worse at the moment.Perhaps signs that its a little early to say that recovery is in full swing!For those trading derivatives ,do not try to pe-guess the market but follow the leaders.

UPDATE JULY 2013
The Spring list is on a sounder footing as the recovery here and in the world is showing signs of better results.Best let momentum guide you.Follow the leaders above.
UPDATE JUNE 2013
The financial markets world wide were in an over bought state.The shares were frothy and have now come off to more realistic levels.TOP 40 shares will now hopefully gain in capital growth as dividends promise to increase.Do your research home work before purchasing and remember to let momentum of the top gainers guide you.
UPDATE May 2013
The financial stimulus pumped in by America and Europe seems to be having a beneficial effect upon their markets,plus a better than report out of China.Thus pushing stock markets world-wide higher.There also signs that recovery will continue even after the stimulus is ended.
It would be worth investigating the top six shares at this stage ,before deciding on which to follow.

STARTING 22 MARCH 2012
22 OCTOBER Update  FINAL UPDATE
APN    +  34%
ARI     -     7%
ASR    +  37%
BIL     +  22%
BVT    +  18%
FSR     +  15%
GRT    +  22%
HAR    -   18% 
IMP     -     6% 
MSM   -     5%
RMH   +  19%
REM    + 14%
SHF     +    2%

SOL     +    2%
TRU    +  26%
WHL   +  42%
SEPTEMBER UPDATE
The trend is still positive and might to be so  for some time to come.
AUGUST UPDATE
This year has produced the best results of shares coming up to their Final declaration ,when compared to the two previous years.See below.This tells me we are finally slowly emerging from this great recession.

INFORMATION
The following shares gave installments upon them at this time,Do check out for more later as new ones might be introdued  BIL,FSR  ,GRT,HAR,IMP,SOL
JULY UPDATE Certain sectors are now running,namely property,stores and banks
JUNE UPDATE  The market is starting to tick over nicely
 For this type of trading remember the old adages. Do not have any favourites,but follow the leaders and invest in them.Keep till after the last day to trade ,then sell and then follow the same principle in the next period.

MAY UPDATE     THERE HAS BEEN A WHOLE TRANCHE OF BAD ECONOMIC NEWS OUT OF EUROPE WHICH HAS HAD A NEGATIVE EFFECT UPON OUR SHARES,AT THIS TIME.HAR and IMP ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR LONG TERM  DERIVATIVE INVESTING NOW AT THIS TIME, AS THEIR RESPECTIVE  REGRESSION LINES ARE NEGATIVE.

APRIL UPDATE Remember the best method to follow is to have no favourites.The list should start showing which shares are gaining next month.Then follow those showing the most momentum



THE TOP 40 SHARES ARE MIGRATING TOWARDS FINAL DECLARATIONS IN SPRING OR AUTUMN.FOR THIS REASON WE ARE LISTING THESE SHARES EARLIER
BELOW ARE FOR COMPARISON WITH THE LATEST YEAR
------------------------------------------------------------------
From 23 May 2011 to 4 OCT 2011write up below)
APN    + 8%
ARI     - 13%
BIL     - 18%
BVT    +  1%
FSR     +  1%

GRT   +   1 %
HAR   +   4%
IMP     -   8%
MSM   +   1%
RMH   -    6 %
SHF     -    6%
SHP    + 14%
SOL    -    5%
OCTOBER FINAL UPDATE A REALLY POOR PERFORMANCE WHEN COMPARED TO LAST YEAR,HOPEFULLY THE WORLD ECOMONY WILL BE INRECOVERY MODE NEXT YEAR. SEE LAST YEARS LIST BELOW.
.

Last years list is there for comparison
Starting date for list is 5/5/2010 to16/9/2010
LIST A1 (SHARES coming up to the FINAL dividend in spring which are likely to produce an actual Dividend and the Regression line is UP 
                   Last
              5 Months
               Gain/Loss
APN    +   18 %
ARI       +   15%
BIL     +   21%
BVT    +   13%
GRT   +    18%
FSR    +    09%
SHF    +   10%
SHP   +    15 %
SLM  +    15%
SOL   +    11%
IMP   +    14 %
Not an outstanding  capital gain performance for this period ,but just moderate,but if one takes the divdends as well,which are partially tax-free then well worth the exercise for INSTALMENTS as wellas SHARES.The first modest gain period after the RECESSION.





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Update 5/6/2010 During this month performance was very poor as was the whole market.I have done no research on any of the shares yet as it is early days the above shares yeilded a capital return of anything between - 7% and plus + 4% which i felt was random
Please check out carefully if any of these shares have a Standard Bank Instalment upon them,then do your own research before purchasing. Only buy if the regression line is up on the charts,otherwise you are likely to make a loss as the gearing works on the shorter held stocks in a positive market.Read the Long Term Instalment List for information  on Instalments.

I take no responsibility for any mistakes or omissions