The Best One can do Now !

  The best one can do now is hold onto sections of stocks one knows are going to be needed in future to supply the needs of the world popula...

About Me

Retired but always looking for new challenges.
Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 1, 2019

NEW YEAR PROSPECTS

1.During the previous year the general investment climate in Southern Africa never really lived up to  expectations.
Stocks of course had over shot the true recovery from the 2008 recession. Further, very bad political decisions such as the land grab debate to curry favor  with the  uneducated part of the electorate had bad repercussions for our country as overseas investors sold off our stocks . Moving to the more safe countries of the world.
See the side bar as some stocks held up  and mid-capital stocks did rather well when based on sound principles .
As our government is now looking for overseas funds to prop up their program of aims they have to get a lid on corruption and general government wastage. It unlikely that they will do the absolute take overs as Europe and America put pressure on them to behave in a civilised manner!
One danger is that they are turning to China for more of their monetary needs,how  ever China itself being under threat of  trade wars is cutting back on more reckless lending.
2. Platinum group metals are now coming into their own. There is always at least a couple , out performing. At the moment Rhodium and Palladium are trending. Do look at our Mining website where reasons are discussed from time to time. 
See the top of right hand side-bar,for the latest updates .



Wednesday, August 1, 2018

THE PRESIDENT TRIES TO BOOST THE ECONOMY BEFORE THE ELECTION IN 2019

Most of us are more than a bit worried by the direction this is taking.
First of all he has announced that there will be a change to the constitution by introducing a bill to take land with out compensation.What most of us find annoying is that the state already holds a vast amount of government land. The shaky assurance is given that fully productive land will not be included! 
WHO DECIDES THIS WE WONDER !
Africa states till now after gaining their independence have mostly all tried this approach with disasterous results to date as confidence in their countries has plunged them all to deep junk status !
Secondly as graft has lost ESCOM (electricity) their double AA rating and driven their lending terms into junk ,they can not secure a loan to carry on working.
ENTER CHINA for this and other state enterprises in trouble. I do hope that have firm accountability and will repay these loans on due dates,other wise China will find other less desirable methods of repayment such as introducing thousands more of their citizens to this country as an immigration destination. 
A NEW FORM OF COLONIALISM WE SUPPOSE!
Africa's motto has always been "Africa ruled by the Africans for the Africans" an admirable slogan.
Our neighbor Zimbabwe are so deeply in debt to China that they first went to China to ask their permission before they disposed of their long time dictator Mugabe !

The newest page updates are in the right hand column. The latest update are at or near the top of the updates.





Friday, June 1, 2018

MINING TO BE INVIGORATED IN SOUTH AFRICA !

The Mandela Mining Precinct is being brought back to life with varying amounts of researches again .Anglo Plats is giving $60 million to investigate all facets of Fuel Cells. This effort is also being encouraged byt he government and the chamber of mines.
This was once the most important investigatory units in the world because of South African's producing and having the most reserves of platinum and gold and other minerals in abundance.
Our mines are amongst the deepest in the world with tunnels between four and six miles deep !

LATEST UPDATES INCLUDING MY SPECIALIST WATCHLIST INRIGHT HAND SIDE-BAR

Sunday, October 1, 2017

MINING SURVEY FRIENDLY COUNTRIES

  A Mining survey shows that the most mining friendly countries and areas are ARIZONA,NEVADA,FINLAND,MEXICO,IRELAND,WESTERN AUSTRALIA AND QUEENSLAND.  

On the whole African independent states including South Africa have fallen out of favor. These regions formerly were very favorable to miners. The governments since independence when they took over from in their eyes from the much maligned colonialists who handed them good working economies on a platter have been very corrupt ,lazy and are it would seem only interested in lining the pockets of politicians and top government officials.
Looting has become commonplace and increased taxes have made establishing new mines a risky enterprise. Added to this now further talk of "windfall taxes" and socialist polices of nationalisation have driven overseas capital away completely.
These indigenous officials don't seem to realise that it takes millions of US Dollars to establish a working mine and this process can take up to ten years and not all mines can be profitable as metal and mineral prices rise and fall all the time.

Older mines are closing down plus heavy taxes and royalties shedding  thousands of jobs with no replacements on the horision 
is causing great misery.

Whipping the local indigenous Africans populations with talk of "white mining exploitation !"  is not helping matters either. Also The new mining charter in South Africa will bring new misery. South African mines have some of the best legislation ,which compares well with the world in protecting laborers rights.
UPDATES:- Google :- SEE SIDE-BAR RIGHT TOP
MY SPECIALIST WATCH LISTS

SPRING AND SUMMER SEPTEMBER UPDATES
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READ THE NEW BLOG BVIANS EDGE TO SEE OUR OPINION OF BITCOIN NOW

ABACUS INFORMATION ALERTS

BVIANS AND NAOMI'S SMALL CAP STOCKS

BVIANS MINING STOCKS



Monday, May 1, 2017

Overcoming problems !

South Africa has been down graded to below investment grade namely BB+ by both Fitch and Standard , Moodys has not yet decided to follow and is waiting to see if democratic principles will prevail.
The ruling party is losing considerable ground after 23 years in power, becoming more corrupt, with officials looking to line their own pockets with wealth at the expense of the electorate the so called  "Gravy Train !" . 
They have had a wake up call as they loose ground in bye- elections to the more populist and slogan bound left wing.
Our electorate is mostly poorly educated . So now the ruling ANC are starting to use slogans and revert to more socialist and unfortunately racialist ideas blaming the Whites (All Europeans) for their shortcomings. 
All sides gave ground with the beautiful idea of a rainbow nation under De Klerk and Nelson Mandela ,who won the Noble peace prize for their joint efforts. This is now been eroded and forgotten.
The sacking of the world renowned minister of finance Gordhan and replaced by  the new minister with an already shady record. Named  Gibata,  finally triggered   the rating agencies decision.
Gibata has an university professor adviser  with ideas that might seem moronic! This adviser wishes to strip all whites of positions in banks,insurance companies and white farmers of their land with out compensation.
Our president is encouraging the use of the slogan  RADICAL CHANGE, with out spelling out what this means!

 NEWEST UPDATES IN PLACE   SEE PAGES AT TOP  OF LEFT HAND SIDE-BAR
1.SMALL CAPS.
2 ABACUS NEW IDEAS

3. SEE MY NEW SUMMARY ON MY SPECIALIST WATCH LISTS
4. Spring derivative top 40 list updated

Saturday, July 2, 2016

RAND STRENGTH

During the whole Brexit fiasco the Rand held up surprisingly well, losing very little against the US Dollar.
 As Soon as the initial panic ended it made it all back in three days! Compare this with other countries through out the world where a rout took place as if a comet was threatening the world.
The reason was that longer term mutual funds, large conglomerates and longer term traders  are looking to receive a better returns on their investments.  Most first world investments such as bonds are now in negative territory ,so large investments are losing money. 
 First our bonds were in demand again and large cash flows are coming in. Our bonds are still around 7% positive.
Now our mining shares are starting to take off as modest demand  to return and risk on investments are coming into vogue again.
                                         ALSO


1.The British Commonwealth will in the long run be better off ,as will British relations with those countries as the European grouping have been urging Britain to cut favourable trade deals to its former empire! South Africa is also a member of the commonwealth.
2. The reason for the no vote winning was the European Union showing little resolution to curb illegal immigration, which any thinking person could see would lead to  WORK BECOMING VERY SCARCE AND COUNTRIES STRUGGLING WITH MONIES TO PROVIDE SOCIAL SERVICES FOR THEIR OWN POPULATIONS ,LET ALONE ILLEGAL FOREIGNERS !

Saturday, June 4, 2016

BREATHING SPACE !

   THE  DECISION WE WERE ALL WAITING FOR, THAT IS TO SEE IF WE WERE TO FALL INTO JUNK  (NON INVESTMENT GRADE)WAS AVERTED YESTERDAY .WE ALL GAVE A GREAT SIGH OF RELEF WHEN STANDARD AND POOR KEPT US ONE NOTCH ABOVE THIS STATUS. LATE LAST MONTH MOODY'S EVEN  MOVED US UP TWO NOTCHES.   THIS GOES TO SHOW WHAT CAN BE ACHIEVED WHEN BUSINESS , THE TRADE UNIONS AND GOVERNMENT ALL WORK TOGETHER FOR THE GOOD OF THE COUNTRY INSTEAD OF SHOUTING AT EACH OTHER. A FURTHER REVEIW WILL BE HELD AT YEAR END SO THERE IS MUCH WORK TO DO. WE ARE STILL THE STRONGEST FISCAL STATE IN AFRICA!
   THE CRISES WAS BASICALLY CREATED WHEN THE BOTTOM FELL OUT OF THE RESOURCE PRICES WITH DOWNTURNS IN DEVELOPED AS WELL AS DEVELOPING NATIONS AND HAS PERSISTED FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS. OUR GOVERNMENT WAS VERY LAX AND CONTINUED TO TRY TO SPEND OUR WAY OUT OF THE RECESSION ON BORROWED MONEY.
   WE CAN NOT REST ON OUR LAURELS NOW.
A GOOD MOVE WAS TO BRING MR GORDHAN BACK AS  THE MINISTER OF FINANCE. THE GOVERNMENT MUST CUT DOWN ON GRAFT WHICH REACHES FROM THE VERY HIGHEST ECHELONS OF STATE STRUCTURES TO THE LOWEST. THIS IS A SERIOUS MATTER. A GOOD START WAS MADE WHEN THE PUBLIC PROTECTOR MADE OUR STATE PRESIDENT PAY FOR PART OF THE UPGRADES TO HIS PRIVATE RESIDENCE.
    A MORE OMINOUS  SUBJECT WHICH WAS PUT ON THE BACK BURNER WAS THE SOCIALIST MINING CHARTER. IN ITS PRESENT FORM WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE STATE TO IMPOSE IMPOSSIBLE DEMANDS AND AND EVEN SEIZURE IF NOT MET SHOULD BE TOTALLY SCRAPPED,AS MINING COMPANIES CANNOT PAY WORKERS MORE OR CEDE MORE TO THE STATE TAKING THE STATES SHARE TO 50% AS PRICES DECLINE. NO NEW MINES ARE BEEN DEVELOPED AS THIS REQUIRES BILLIONS OF AMERICAN DOLLARS AND WHO WOULD INVEST IN SUCH AN UNCERTAIN COUNTRY,IF THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THOSE ASSESTS BEEN CONFISCATED ?
AFTER ALL IT TAKE MANY YEARS TO BRING MINES TO PROFITABILITY.
  ANOTHER DUMB MOVE,  IN ANOTHER BILL STILL IN THE MAKING IS TO FORCE MINING COMPANIES AT THIS CRITICAL TIME TO KEEP A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF THEIR PRODUCTS BACK FOR FURTHER BENEFICATION HERE BEFOR EXPORTING THEM. THIS QUOTA WILL BE DECIDED BY TECHNOCRATS OF THE RULING PARTY. THIS IS SUPPOSED TO BE TO CREATE JOBS, BUT SUCH BENEFICATION IS USUALLY HIGHLY SOPHISCATED,REQUIRING SKILLED WORKERS FROM OUTSIDE OUR REGION , IS UNLIKELY TO CREATE JOBS AND WORST OF ALL , WHERE WOULD WE SELL THESE PRODUCTS?
IN THE COMING MONTHS I SHALL ENDEVOUR TO REPORT ON POSITIVE ASPECTS OF OUR EVENTUAL  RECOVERY WHICH IS A MUST.
 1 THE NEWEST ADDITIONS TO PAGES ARE MENTIONED AT THE TOP OF THE INDEX ABOVE.
 2 SEE THE ADDITIONAL NEW SMALL CAP WINTER  AND YEAR  LISTS ABOVE
3 Whilst we wait for Brexit to play itself out on the 24 June 2016 maybe visit our revamped site at http://paws2012.blogspot.com for a gentler look at life !

Wednesday, September 2, 2015

UPDATES, POST "Ecomonies of scale !"

UPDATES
See the Spring update above 28/9/2015
See Summer and Autumn updates 21/9/2015
 See mineral news above 7/9/2015
See Small Caps AND Altex above 18/9/2015, 24/9/2015


POST
 China is a centrally  controlled
economy where the government interferes in every facet of life ,including tightly regulating economic activity.
Obviously always with the best intentions. To gain more traction and direction economically, they loosened controls on some aspects of commercial life and even allowed a stock exchange to come into existence.
Every country has a number of enterprising citizens who then listed on the exchange and found they could make money trading shares. News quickly spread and the masses stared to join in. Little did thee traders understand that an individual stock should increase in value only as it's dividend grows on a sound footing that it makes more profit and all types of shares started to move up sharply ,some into almost into the stratosphere ! There was also a building boom which further excrebiated  the worsening situation. Bubbles formed and the inevitable crash followed. The warning signs were
there for the last three years, of course many excuses were made that thing were  not that bad.
Different from other countries, the Chinese government continues to interfere by measures such as preventing money brought in from around the world so invested from leaving their country. They also curbed bear activity which would have prevented the worst sell offs and goes in for buying shares in untenable stocks to keep the price from falling.
All this upset the world stock markets as one felt China a couple of years ago looked as if it would lift the mantle of being the strongest economy in the world from the United States of America. This course of events looks now as if this will never come about.
Now to divert their citizens from their troubles they are unfortunately turning to military solutions by fermenting situations with neighbours.



Wednesday, August 1, 2012

AUGUST Updates Economics, see newest Posts above

 (8.30 PM SOUTH AFRICAN TIME 1/8/2012)
Bernanke will continue operation twist,but will take no further new steps and if labour continues to decline will consider additional steps at the Sept 12/13 meeting.Very predictable ,I would say.
See latest page updates above and commetary below.
For the latest on Gold and Platinum go to New Alert above
THANKS TO ALL BLOGGERS THAT VISITED THE SIDE-BAR items.

1.Over the next couple of days both Europe and American reserve banks will decide what they might do to prevent their economies from sliding into another recession.They are likely to disappoint the market as what ever they do it will be deemed too little too late! How ever I feel the recovery continues slowly world wide.Rash actions by reserve banks to bolster economies,usually makes the private sector lazy and then they demand more and more as they do less themselves.Printing money with out backing is an eventual road to disaster.