The Best One can do Now !

  The best one can do now is hold onto sections of stocks one knows are going to be needed in future to supply the needs of the world popula...

About Me

Retired but always looking for new challenges.

Friday, February 1, 2013

Miners Dilemma !

PRECIOUS METAL MINERS have had to deal with unexpected circumstances of late in our country,South Africa and the rest of the world. See article below Notes and Alerts .
ALERT Day 20
SIBANYE mine has closed a shaft at the Beatrice Mine after a fire broke out there.The falling gold price has not helped matters .Now seperate from GFI it is mineral rich and consists of the older parts of the then GOLDFIELDS CONGLOMERATE.Sure its gold is expected to run out around 2030,but in the meantime it will produce good dividends.
ALERT Day 8.
25%OF SOUTH AFRICAS working population is either directly or indirectly dependent on mining,states Anglo American for their income.

NOTE 1.The newest update of the pages above is at the bottom of the index list above
NOTE 2.See above Naomi has updated her analysis


Both Platinum and Gold mines should be making a great recovery now as the share prices of other types of mines and industries recover as the world emerges from the long recession,but they are not.
The question should be asked why?
Well Gold has not as many industrial uses and is more a store of wealth to be held in times when the ecomonies are suffering.
Platinum group metals on the other hand are both in demand as precious metals and have a myriad of industrial uses.
So why is the Platinum price not increasing at a greater pace than it did after the last recession in the ninety nineties?In fact it is struggling to increase at a pace greater than the gold price.The platinum price is now around $1700 as is gold.The price after the last recession reached $2200 per ounce!
The answer is that then there was absolutely no platinum recovery process  in place.Now there is a recovery industry which collects scrap platinum metal from spent catylitic converters. The recovery rate is above 90%.This can then be sold to the users at a price well below the newly mined platinum price.
Palladium and rhodium can also be recovered but as they are not such a threat as the scap platinum recovery is to newly mined platinum.
Rising costs and inflation has rendered about half the platinum group mines unprofitable.Many of the gold producers are suffering a similar fate. See the latest update in the index above on 12 feb 2013.

Tuesday, January 1, 2013

The new year awakens !

Obviously we are going to try to avoid last years mistakes and do the right things to be very successful ,but just remember;
"The greatest mistake you can make in life ,is to be continually afraid that you are going to make one"  ELBERT HUBBARD.

ALERT 24 JAN TWO REASONABLY PRICED RAND HEDGES NOW WITH STRONG FLOWS OF INCOME. REDEFINE INTERNATIONAL(RIN),TRENCOR(TRE)

ALERT 10 JAN
RESOURCE SHARES ARE ON THE MOVE.THE PLATINUM PRICE IS QUITE RAPIDLY CLOSING IN ON THE GOLD PRICE.CHINA IS PROVIDING SUPPORT TO WORLD RECOVERY AND AMERICA IS SLOWLY RECOVERING.THE DEMAND FOR ENERGY AND OTHER MINERALS FUELED BY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION IS RAMPING UP. IN DEMAND NOW IS PLATINUM AND COAL

1.The latest updates are mentioned at the BOTTOM OF THE INDEX LIST ABOVE

See Barry's latest comment on commercial real estate on part A real estate page on
the following blogspot
             and     also see Naomi's update of small resource shares  AND her first comment on technical  analysis Jan16

http://2010plusstocktrends.blogspot.com

Saturday, December 1, 2012

DECEMBER The "FISCAL CLIFF"

FINAL ALERT 28/12/2012
The canny American Politicians realise that the Americans will have to fork out more money in taxes if America is to keep its super power status and other steps have to be taken to balance the budget, as well as keeping positive programs in their society.Never a popular move for any demoncratically elected government to take.Certain political suicide for any party associated with increases.So they are likely to let some of the fiscal cliff  go through.Then they can propose softening the most contentious parts and that will be well received by all.They might just increase the debt ceiling now.
The wildcat strikes have taken their toll on especially Gold and Platinum mines .With out further structurng the majority are in or will run into a monetary deficit soon.
(See article below other info.)
The final updates for 2012 small cap shares are below the 2013 list  on the web-site below and on recovery shares below the recovery watchlist for 2012
GO TO SOME REALLY GREAT SMALL CAP GAINS ON THE ALTEX ON PAGE 4
GO TO http://popgames12.blogspot.com

NEW ALERT 5/12.
On the VIX INDEX the lows are creeping upwards since the 12 Sept.The highs show no pattern in particular yet,but we can expect an upward move as the FISCAL CLIFF nears in January.As most of our resources are counted in Dollar terms,it is likely to have a devistating effect upon our share prices over the short term if no agreement is reached.

Info item no1(scroll down to find)

MOST POPULAR POSTS 
 IN MARCH 2012
  1. THE STRIPPING OF SOUTH AFRICAN ASSETS
 2.  APRIL 2012 ECONOMICS AND GOLD
 3. SEPTEMBER 2012 MARIKANA BOILS OVER
 4. OCTOBER 2012  A POLITCAL PLAY
 5. NOVEMBER 2012 A SLOW RETURN TO NORMALITY

INFO ITEM NO2
THE LATEST PAGE UPDATE ABOVE IS ALWAYS AT THE BOTTOM OF THE INDEX LIST ABOVE.THIS IS TO MAKE IT EASIER TO FIND.THEN THERE'S NO REASON  TO PAGE THROUGH THE WHOLE INDEX FROM THE TOP EACH TIME.
INFO ITEM NO 3
ON THIS POST'S PAGES IN THE COMING MONTHS THE SMALL CAPS WLL BE MOVED TO THEIR OWN WEB PAGE.
THE LINK WLL ALWAYS BE AVAILABLE ABOVE
also SEE THE BUSNESS WEEK POST ON THIS NEW HOME:-

http://popgames12.blogspot.com


ARTICLE:-
THE MOST DISTURBING THING THE STRIKES WAS THE INSTRANGIGENCE AND VIOLENCE THAT WENT WITH THE ACTION.IT HAS LEFT AN UNCOMFORTABLE FEELING THAT WE ARE NOT ALL ON THE SAME PAGE!
THE MINES COULD NOT EVER COME NEAR WHAT WAS ASKED,HOW EVER THEY LOST SO MUCH IN PRODUCTION,THAT THEIR FUTURE IS NOT ASSURED.
THE MINE BOSSES HAVE VERY VALIANTLY COME FORWARD WITH PLANS TO SAVE THE DAY.
THE FIRST ONE WAS   THE PLATINUM MINER AMPLATS WHO HAVE INFORMED US THAT THEY ARE DOING A COMPLETE REVEIW OF THEIR OPERATIONS AND WILL INFORM THE MARKET IN THE NEW YEAR OF THEIR DECISIONS.
GOLD FIELDS ARE SEPERATING SOME OF THEIR ASSETS FROM THE REST OF THEIR HOLDINGS . LONMIN IS RAISING A RIGHTS ISSUE.
THE REST WILL PROBABLY TAKE ACTION SOON.
 



Thursday, November 1, 2012

NOVEMBER A slow return to normality ?

The after effects of the labour disruptions,are being felt by every one in our country,but we are ever hopeful that the worst is behind us and in time the economy will recover fast enough to give us all a sustainable better life ! (See article below)
SEE NAOMI'S RESOURCE UPDATE ABOVE
NAOMI SAYS SHE HAS NEVER SEEN THE MARKET SO OVER SOLD GO TO HER TECH ANALYSIS ABOVE FOR MORE INFO 19/11/2012

USE LABELS UNDER POSTS TO CLUSTER LIKE SUBJECTS TOGETHER.ALSO SEE LABELS IN THE SIDE-BAR .
IF YOU WISH TO FOLLOW BY  E-MAIL SEE BUTTON NEAR BOTTOM OF SIDE-BAR

The Gold mines are using collective bargaining which seems to be working for them,how ever the Platinum and Chrome mines in mostly North West ,Mupumalanga and Limpopo provinces are working towards this model,but are finding the going sticky.
I for one cannot see how this is going to work as there so many different types of mining procedure and richer on poorer ore bodies,opencast and tunnels etc.
The workers in these provinces as well as those coming from the Eastern Cape are highly politicised and seem to have a political agenda as well.There is a rumour that some of their basic needs are been seen to ,by elements unknown. The National Union of Mineworkers which is reconised held a meeting this week which was well attended,when  rival organisions turned up armed to teeth half way through their meeting and tried to disrupt it.The police had their hands full keeping the two groups apart!
The platinum mines are now looking for various ways to save money as they are mostly working at a loss and raise money to carry on.
THE WORD MECHANISATION IS BEING BANDIED ABOUT.Let us not forget that about ten years ago Lonmin went ahead with such a scheme.At the time the other majors did not.Well it was an absolute flop as they lost out and made much less money at a time that platinum was thriving than their rivals .Some ore bodies of the platinum group are more than a thousand meters below ground!


1

Monday, October 1, 2012

OCTOBER UPDATE A POLITICAL PLAY

 FURTHER UPDATE 5 OCTOBER Unfortunately this is now turning into a political thing as there is an all out effort to replace the incumbent president namely Zuma with another candidate.It must be noted that he is a Zulu which does not sit well with the Xhosa majority,which has produced every president to date in last eighteen years before Zuma.

SEE RESOURCE TIPS ABOVE ON OCT 17  PAGE and 18 Resource News Post (Above)

This might seem to be an odd statement to make,but let us consider the facts.There is one protected (LEGAL)STRIKE OF TRANSPORT WORKERS ON AT THE MOMENT.ITS TWO YEARS SINCE THEIR LAST NEGOTIATIONS.IT INVOLVES 20,000 DRIVERS OF HEAYY VEHICLE TRANSPORT. THE EMPLOYEES ARE OFFERING 7% INCREASE AND THE WORKERS ARE DEMANDING 12%. THEY ARE NOW ENTERING ARBITRATION ,THIS IS ONE OF THE BEST PAYED  INDUSTRIES.HOW EVER THEY SEEM TO BE SHIFTING IN THEIR DEMANDS AND A GREAT DEAL OF INTIMIDATION IS GOING ON.THERE IS A POLITICAL MOVE AFOOT TO MAKE THE WHOLE COUNTRY UNGOVERNABLE
 FOR THE ILLEGAL STRIKES SEE BELOW  notices.
 For technical analysis visit Oct 1 blog above
All new page updates are mentioned at the bottom of the INDEX ABOVE
WITH MANUFACTURING FALLING IN CHINA AND JAPAN THERE IS A LOWER DEMAND FOR OIL PRODUCTS.THE PRICE IN ASIA IS BEGINNING TO FALL,WHICH SHOULD HAVE A KNOCK ON EFFECT AROUND THE WORLD SOON

There are various strikes which workers are trying to settle with out UNION help,which is illegal.South African unions are affiliated to the INTERNATIONAL LABOUR ORGANISITION OF THE UNITED NATIONS,and follow their rules to the letter.A firm hand is now being applied by Anglo American Platinum the largest mining group.If workers do not return to work they will be payed off soon .The various gold companies are following the same route .Legal pay negotioations will be held next year.

Saturday, September 1, 2012

September Update Marikana boils over!

Yes the world focused on South Africa last month.Unfortunately for all the wrong reasons.The events have been reported on in detail at the Marikana mine.However many of the reports were wrong.So therefore I shall attempt to correct some misconceptions.
At the root of the problem is of course the world depression(disguised by governments as a recession) for political purposes.Along with Greece and other poorer countries frustrations are rising at the lack of opportunities to earn a living wage.It seems this problem will have to work its way through as very little can be done to stimulate world trade.(See rest of article below)
See latest page updates above,see Naomi's update on Jubilee Plat on her blog.

1.Now turning to Marikana in particular.Some workers had been paid off over a period of time and these people formed the core of discontented so called strikers.

2.The large National Union of Miners( NUM) had struck a deal with Lonmin that they would not strike for three years and then renegotiate another deal.They then received better than average pay and working conditions.This is the second such period and it has worked very well up to now for all concerned.

3.NUM expelled some shop stewards that did  want to stick to the deal they had signed.They promptly formed their own union and made rash demands to attract new members.When this did not work very well they employed gang members as enforcers to intimidate their own and NUM members,preventing them from going to work.They met resistance from NUM workers and then turned to savagery and hacked at
 least ten workers to death.

4.This is when the police were called in.They tried water cannon and rubber bullets,but were shot at as well ,by the malcontents who were slowly turning into an organised army,who already killed two policemen.A difficult situation to be sure.The police probably panicked and then killed fort five of the "strikers".

5. A commission of enquiry isto be held to determine if this could have been handled differently ,which is a good response.

6.The minimum wage for an unskilled worker is around R4000 per month basic.On top of this target pay,daily production and other incentives are paid to  willing workers turning up for the job.Constant training is available to get workers to higher levels of education.Their pay is in the order of about R7000 plus per month.Skilled artisans receive around R11000 plus per month.  (One US Dollar equals eight Rand 40 Cents).

8.Unfortunately politicians now want those arrested for the violence to go free.They should be allowed to have their day in court where their case can be fairly judged. 
9.With public opinion mostly now firmly on the side of the malcontents,this lesser union is again starting to intimidate the NUM workers. They are slowly giving up their jobs and returning to their homes although the mines now hire armed security to protect them on mine property.
10.With falling platinum prices,not enough workers,Lonmin now needs cash to carry on with the mining.this might not be forthcoming and the mine may have close its doors,a greater disaster for all concerned.
11. It does seem if this problem will not spread to other mining houses as they have taken steps to inform their own workers of the consequences of all forms of action.
AS ALWAYS THE ABOVE VEIWS ARE ONLY MY PERSONAL OPINION

Wednesday, August 1, 2012

AUGUST Updates Economics, see newest Posts above

 (8.30 PM SOUTH AFRICAN TIME 1/8/2012)
Bernanke will continue operation twist,but will take no further new steps and if labour continues to decline will consider additional steps at the Sept 12/13 meeting.Very predictable ,I would say.
See latest page updates above and commetary below.
For the latest on Gold and Platinum go to New Alert above
THANKS TO ALL BLOGGERS THAT VISITED THE SIDE-BAR items.

1.Over the next couple of days both Europe and American reserve banks will decide what they might do to prevent their economies from sliding into another recession.They are likely to disappoint the market as what ever they do it will be deemed too little too late! How ever I feel the recovery continues slowly world wide.Rash actions by reserve banks to bolster economies,usually makes the private sector lazy and then they demand more and more as they do less themselves.Printing money with out backing is an eventual road to disaster.