CHANGING STRATERGIES

The South African Economy has hit a speed bump. For  about six months our balance of payments have been in deficit A main contributor is that our main trading zone namely Europe is also in recession.There for all the resource products we supply prices have been softer than usual.
See rest of article below notes and alerts
28/6 ALERT
With the price of gold falling ,some investors are confused,about the safe haven aspect of the metal.Well,lets see whats happening now.First of all,many mines are on the ropes and are closing or coming very near to close as they are already working at a loss,due to high wages ,fuel and electricity costs.In the case of an increase in price these mines mostly are unable to take up where they left off as water drainage,unsafe working areas and dwindling gold ores will make it almost impossible to contemplate mining with out a sustained doubling of the gold price.Gold is a last resort source of money in a crises.Every one was relying on China to provide never ending demand for all types of products.This is now proving to be a false asset.Shares to a certain extent are also a store of wealth if chosen in a sector that that can be traded for other goods.As less is being mined it is likely to rise in price due to shortages in due course.

21/6 ALERT
SHALE GAS IS THE THE NEXT BIG THING THAT CAN DRIVE OUR ECONOMY.WE HAVE TRILLIONS OF RANDS WORTH IN THE KAROO REGIONS,WE MUST JUST GET ON WITH IT.MOZANBIQUE AND OTHER AFRICAN REGIONS ARE GOING TO BY PASS US AS WE ARE PLACING TOO MUCH EMPASIS ON RULES AND REGULATIONS AND ON DOWN LINE BENEFICATION! LETS FIRST GET STARTED THEN DECIDE ON LEGISLATION! 

6/6  ALERT PRESIDENT ZUMA has declared zero tolerance against wildcat strikes  as these harm the economy as there are legal means that can be followed if the workeASrs feel they must strike after negotiations have broken down with employees. Further he stated turf wars between different trade unions won't be tolerated again as this has led to loss of life in the past year.

NOTES.
NO 5. Definitely NOT worth a visit is http://bnlifestyle10.blogspot.com    
 so avoid at all costs!

NO4. Naomi has re-set and updated her resource page .See her Tech and Resource blog on 11June above.

No  3 Do read  Part A and Part B of  the real estate round up on the pages index above.

No 2 The newest updates above are always at the bottom of the above index.

N0 1  The two most popular pages above are the Autumn and Spring Share and Derivative Comments .In third place is My specialist Watchlist .In fourth place is the Real Estate pages and fifth place the 
Top 40 watchlist 

Article Continued:

The  USA economy is showing signs of picking up,meanwhile their stock exchange has run ahead of the real economic growth and is reaching all time highs.This state of affairs is also being fed by their reserve bank printing money with out fiscal backing,also known as quantitive easing.Europe is following a more conservative monetary policy so their Euro is weakening against the Dollar.Most of our resources are quoted and sold in USA Dollars.
To add to this mix there is a genuine fear  of third world politics interfering with profits.Our inarticulate top politicans unfortunately do not help matters by making wild statements with out much thought.
The South African Rand has stayed very strong till last week.It has suddenly lost 12% of its value,but shows signs of not going to fall much further and might stage a recovery later in the year.
Our Stocks and Shares all came off this week rather sharply.
Most are now oversold,but knowing how the market reacts its likely to retreat further.Probably it will pick up again from July onwards.Resources and shares with foreign content are now coming into vogue.

MAY UPDATES: COAL'S FUTURE ROLE IN SOUTHERN AFRICA

ALERT 16/5/2013
The supply of coal will have a positive effect upon the economies of Southern Africa, during this centuary and well into the next one.
Luckily we are well endowned with reserves in Southern Africa.
The new methods of working with coal gives a cleaner burn and the new lower use of water will keep this as the primary source well into the next centuary as coal burn power stations are more economical to build than nuclear power stations.
Our present  coal power stations are mostly  in the Mpumalanga province and are built on the coal fields.This coal is now likely to run out in about fifteen years time.Luckily we have vast reserves of all grades of COAL  in the LIMPOPO Province in the Waterberg range of moutains that are both in this province and the neighbouring country of BOTSWANA.
Since coal is supplied to Escom at a lower price it will be necessary to export at least one third of the better coal to pay for the costs of developing this coal field.
The government understands the value of this vast project.There for they are backing the building of new rail links to export and supply existing power stations.
This rail link is likely to extend into Botswana and to the nearest export port which is developed for coalexports,namely Richard's Bay.
These coal fields give themselves to mechanical means of extraction and therefore not require vast amounts of labour.Surely  EXX will probably gain the most traction from this venture?


ALERT 8/5/2013

PLATINUM GROUP AND GOLD MINERS have become "leaner and meaner" as time has gone on and have cut off all the wastefull methods they used in the past.The good news is they will survive.The prices of metals is likely to rise during wage negotiations in South Africa ,but later in this year fall back again.How ever the absence of new mines owing to the high costs and the falling of production in both the United States and South Africa will add to the demand side not meeting their targets.The price is then likely to increase  steadily from late next year onwards


NOTES
1. SEE NAOMI'S RESOURCE UPDATE ON 6,8 MAY.SHE THINKS SMALLER PLATINUM MINES ARE SHOWING THE FIRST GLIMMER OF RECOVERY.

The Stripping of South African Resource Assets Part 2

Unfortunatly remarks by members of our  government  from time to time harm our image.Things are not that bad on the ground,but those utterings take center stage in the overseas news media which unsettles investors.
See rest of article below Alerts and Notes.
ALERT 17/4/2013
Investors and some traders have been surprised by the fact that GOLD and PLATINUM prices dropped when China and other countries failed to meet their targets and their currencies  declined.After all these resources were supposed to be the final currency which should protect them from such events!
Well all reserve banks world-wide still carry GOLD as a reserve currency so it certainly has value as a basis for paper currencies.
In the past gold went up when paper printed currencies went down,but not of late.Now gold increases as the stock market of a country increases in value.The price increases for all the wrong reasons.So speculators had driven the price up.
The physical demand accounts for about a third of newly mined gold ,reserve banks absorb another third and finally hoarders and speculators hold the rest.The price is unlikely to fall below $900 per ounce as this would have a devistating effect upon governments capital held.
 . 
ALERT 12/1/2013
COMMeERZ BANK noted at the beginning of this month that "Monetary turmoil is not easing notably,but accelerating worldwide.The only true value  currency out there is gold"
A startling statement to make for a rather conservative institution!I see that some other commentators include precious metals of the platinum group as well.Rhodium and Platinum both  could be included as there is not enough gold to satisfy the demand of central banks worldwide.Many institutions feel these metals should back quantitive easing money as such easing can not carry on indefinitely as it devalues currency and  leads to quickening of the inflation cycle.
ALERT 1/4/2013
There is a growing surplus of steel and coal starting to develop world wide,caused by industry "jumping the gun" and winding up production before there is a genuine demand for their products.The recession is easing and in time the world will recover,but the recovery is likely to be very slow this year.

Note 1.The latest update can be found at  
the bottom of the index list above.
Note 2.Use the labels in the side-bar or at the bottom of articles to group subjects which makes research easier
Note 3.Thank goodness Naomi is back! See her technical analysis for derivatives above.

The minister of mining Shabangu was unsettled by the choice of  the new CEO of Anglo American(Mark Cutifani replacing Cynthia Carol with out informing or consulting her beforehand.Actually its none of her business!),the international company with its main listing in the UK and remarked that it must be remembered that it was a South African company that had its main listing on the JSE before 1994, migrating to the FTSE there after.She conveinently forgets this company ( the fourth largest in the world) received about 90% of its development capital from overseas.They helped open up  South Africa to be the resources gaint it is today,to say nothing of the taxes it pays and the knock on effect of many industries that serve the mining and other sectors. The Kumba storey where they gave their mining concession to a rival which had members of families of the government ministers comes to mind .Thank goodnes for our law courts which are untainted by scandal.They reversed this decision.Anglo American (AGL)  has behaved impeccably as they have given a fair portion of their development capital to Southern Africa.
The trade unions are letting us down by repeated wild-cat strikes,which our weak  government almost condones.This plus the recession almost brought Angloplat to its knees.Now AGL has to find the funds to re-finance the company again.
Do read the stripping of our assets part 1.
See the side-bar for POPULAR POSTS

Major resources present OPPORTUNITY !

The sell-off of South African

 mineral resources has been

over done. One finds it is

usually the overseas mutual

funds that are the most

skittish. (See the rest of the article below the Alerts and notes)
ALERT.26/3/2013
Utah in the United States passed a law a couple of years ago to make trading in SILVER and GOLD COINS LEGAL TENDER. Now Arizona is considering similar legislation.This all very revelent in the light of the Cyprus government seizing bank deposits of its citizens.
Now in Utah the holdings of silver and gold which private citizens use as currency has doubled.There is no tax upon currencies .This can have  a stabilising effect upon Gold and silver.The coins are valued at their intrinsic value which varies daily.Many are kept in depositries or as we keep our coins at home.Then a coin card can be swiped.


ALERT.20/3/2013
We hope tht government does not fall into the trap the rest of Africa has in believing the mines are making a killing when they have an extra big pay out of dividends to their share holders as this is an event that happens rarely these days.They forget that a mining company can go years with out paying a dividend and such an event compensates the long suffering shareholders for their patience.They should stop talking about "windfall taxes" !
ALERT. 13/3/2013
1.The poor performance of the Rand is now caused by our foreign exchange deficit.The immediate way to improve the deficit is to attract more investment capital to South Africa,a difficult task as there are government politicians that discourage investment by their utterings at every turn.Also the tax regime on foreign investment should be made less onerous.A great many countries are vieing for these funds by giving all kinds of incentives.
2.The wild cat strikes at EXXARO over production bonuses is regrettable.This can lead to coal shortages and electriccal shortages this winter.
DAY 13  PM
THE STRIKERS ARE STARTING TO RETURN TO WORK.UNFORTUNATELY WILD CAT STRIKES SEEM TO BECOMING THE NORM ON ALL KINDS OF MINES FOR FRIVILOUS REASONS.THIS MUST BE BROUGHT  UNDER CONTROL

ALERT. 7/3/2013
SHARES ON THE DOW HAVE REACHED THEIR HIGHEST POINT EVER.IF ONE REALISES THAT THE LAST TIME THAT THEY REACHED THAT POINT WAS FIVE YEARS AGO THEN REALLY THEY STILL HAVE A WAY TO GO THEY REALLY BECOME OVERBOUGHT.

THE PE RATIO NOW AVERAGES AROUND 14.  AT THE HEIGHT OFTHE DOTCOM BUBBLE IT WAS AROUND AN AVERAGE OF 19.

THAT SAID,IT MUST BE REMEMBERED THAT ITS THE FED  PUMPING MORE MONEY INTO THEIR ECONOMY(US $) THATS LETTING THEIR SHARE PRICES RISE AS ITS THE ONLY PLACE THEY CAN GET A DECENT RETURN ON THEIR CAPITAL.THEIR ECONOMY IS STILL SLUGGISH.

NOTE 1.The latest updates are  at the bottom of the index list above
NOTE 2.Visit  the NEW page six of Small/Mid cap shares on index above for the latest share movements.
NOTE 3.In the absence of Naomi I am updating Technical analysis this month-Barry see above.
NOTE 4. The Platinum report has been replaced by THE GOLD AND PLATINUM REVEIW .   See the First new report above.
The major resource holding companies and mining groups continue to hold and increase their holdings when appropiate as now bargains abound.Since 1894 when Gold was first discovered in South Africa the mining of all kinds of resources has been fairly turbulent.How ever those that stayed invested were justly greatly rewarded.Of course our government does not always act in the best interests of mining and should be critisised for their actions,but it is worth mentioning that it is not government policy to nationalise the mines and this stance is unlikely to change.As with most of the world at the moment there is a great deal of discontent with a high unimployment rate.As the world recovers there will be more opportunity for jobs in industry and mining and then tensions are likely to ease.

Miners Dilemma !

PRECIOUS METAL MINERS have had to deal with unexpected circumstances of late in our country,South Africa and the rest of the world. See article below Notes and Alerts .
ALERT Day 20
SIBANYE mine has closed a shaft at the Beatrice Mine after a fire broke out there.The falling gold price has not helped matters .Now seperate from GFI it is mineral rich and consists of the older parts of the then GOLDFIELDS CONGLOMERATE.Sure its gold is expected to run out around 2030,but in the meantime it will produce good dividends.
ALERT Day 8.
25%OF SOUTH AFRICAS working population is either directly or indirectly dependent on mining,states Anglo American for their income.

NOTE 1.The newest update of the pages above is at the bottom of the index list above
NOTE 2.See above Naomi has updated her analysis


Both Platinum and Gold mines should be making a great recovery now as the share prices of other types of mines and industries recover as the world emerges from the long recession,but they are not.
The question should be asked why?
Well Gold has not as many industrial uses and is more a store of wealth to be held in times when the ecomonies are suffering.
Platinum group metals on the other hand are both in demand as precious metals and have a myriad of industrial uses.
So why is the Platinum price not increasing at a greater pace than it did after the last recession in the ninety nineties?In fact it is struggling to increase at a pace greater than the gold price.The platinum price is now around $1700 as is gold.The price after the last recession reached $2200 per ounce!
The answer is that then there was absolutely no platinum recovery process  in place.Now there is a recovery industry which collects scrap platinum metal from spent catylitic converters. The recovery rate is above 90%.This can then be sold to the users at a price well below the newly mined platinum price.
Palladium and rhodium can also be recovered but as they are not such a threat as the scap platinum recovery is to newly mined platinum.
Rising costs and inflation has rendered about half the platinum group mines unprofitable.Many of the gold producers are suffering a similar fate. See the latest update in the index above on 12 feb 2013.

The new year awakens !

Obviously we are going to try to avoid last years mistakes and do the right things to be very successful ,but just remember;
"The greatest mistake you can make in life ,is to be continually afraid that you are going to make one"  ELBERT HUBBARD.

ALERT 24 JAN TWO REASONABLY PRICED RAND HEDGES NOW WITH STRONG FLOWS OF INCOME. REDEFINE INTERNATIONAL(RIN),TRENCOR(TRE)

ALERT 10 JAN
RESOURCE SHARES ARE ON THE MOVE.THE PLATINUM PRICE IS QUITE RAPIDLY CLOSING IN ON THE GOLD PRICE.CHINA IS PROVIDING SUPPORT TO WORLD RECOVERY AND AMERICA IS SLOWLY RECOVERING.THE DEMAND FOR ENERGY AND OTHER MINERALS FUELED BY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION IS RAMPING UP. IN DEMAND NOW IS PLATINUM AND COAL

1.The latest updates are mentioned at the BOTTOM OF THE INDEX LIST ABOVE

See Barry's latest comment on commercial real estate on part A real estate page on
the following blogspot
             and     also see Naomi's update of small resource shares  AND her first comment on technical  analysis Jan16

http://2010plusstocktrends.blogspot.com

DECEMBER The "FISCAL CLIFF"

FINAL ALERT 28/12/2012
The canny American Politicians realise that the Americans will have to fork out more money in taxes if America is to keep its super power status and other steps have to be taken to balance the budget, as well as keeping positive programs in their society.Never a popular move for any demoncratically elected government to take.Certain political suicide for any party associated with increases.So they are likely to let some of the fiscal cliff  go through.Then they can propose softening the most contentious parts and that will be well received by all.They might just increase the debt ceiling now.
The wildcat strikes have taken their toll on especially Gold and Platinum mines .With out further structurng the majority are in or will run into a monetary deficit soon.
(See article below other info.)
The final updates for 2012 small cap shares are below the 2013 list  on the web-site below and on recovery shares below the recovery watchlist for 2012
GO TO SOME REALLY GREAT SMALL CAP GAINS ON THE ALTEX ON PAGE 4
GO TO http://popgames12.blogspot.com

NEW ALERT 5/12.
On the VIX INDEX the lows are creeping upwards since the 12 Sept.The highs show no pattern in particular yet,but we can expect an upward move as the FISCAL CLIFF nears in January.As most of our resources are counted in Dollar terms,it is likely to have a devistating effect upon our share prices over the short term if no agreement is reached.

Info item no1(scroll down to find)

MOST POPULAR POSTS 
 IN MARCH 2012
  1. THE STRIPPING OF SOUTH AFRICAN ASSETS
 2.  APRIL 2012 ECONOMICS AND GOLD
 3. SEPTEMBER 2012 MARIKANA BOILS OVER
 4. OCTOBER 2012  A POLITCAL PLAY
 5. NOVEMBER 2012 A SLOW RETURN TO NORMALITY

INFO ITEM NO2
THE LATEST PAGE UPDATE ABOVE IS ALWAYS AT THE BOTTOM OF THE INDEX LIST ABOVE.THIS IS TO MAKE IT EASIER TO FIND.THEN THERE'S NO REASON  TO PAGE THROUGH THE WHOLE INDEX FROM THE TOP EACH TIME.
INFO ITEM NO 3
ON THIS POST'S PAGES IN THE COMING MONTHS THE SMALL CAPS WLL BE MOVED TO THEIR OWN WEB PAGE.
THE LINK WLL ALWAYS BE AVAILABLE ABOVE
also SEE THE BUSNESS WEEK POST ON THIS NEW HOME:-

http://popgames12.blogspot.com


ARTICLE:-
THE MOST DISTURBING THING THE STRIKES WAS THE INSTRANGIGENCE AND VIOLENCE THAT WENT WITH THE ACTION.IT HAS LEFT AN UNCOMFORTABLE FEELING THAT WE ARE NOT ALL ON THE SAME PAGE!
THE MINES COULD NOT EVER COME NEAR WHAT WAS ASKED,HOW EVER THEY LOST SO MUCH IN PRODUCTION,THAT THEIR FUTURE IS NOT ASSURED.
THE MINE BOSSES HAVE VERY VALIANTLY COME FORWARD WITH PLANS TO SAVE THE DAY.
THE FIRST ONE WAS   THE PLATINUM MINER AMPLATS WHO HAVE INFORMED US THAT THEY ARE DOING A COMPLETE REVEIW OF THEIR OPERATIONS AND WILL INFORM THE MARKET IN THE NEW YEAR OF THEIR DECISIONS.
GOLD FIELDS ARE SEPERATING SOME OF THEIR ASSETS FROM THE REST OF THEIR HOLDINGS . LONMIN IS RAISING A RIGHTS ISSUE.
THE REST WILL PROBABLY TAKE ACTION SOON.